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И ещё об эффекте богатства в азиатской экономической модели

Майкл Петтис в своей последней рассылке привёл вот такую интересную цитату из исследования МВФ:

  • Panel estimates suggest that household savings respond strongly to a change in the real interest rate. A one percentage point increase in the real rate of return on bank deposits lowers the urban household saving rate by 0.6 percentage points.
  • A comparison of the relationship across sub-periods shows that the association is stronger in the later period, 2003–09, relative to the earlier period, 1996–2002. The relationship is robust to the inclusion of variables that proxy for other influences on saving such as life cycle considerations and self-insurance against income volatility.
  • The evidence also indicates that when the return on alternative investment is high (for example when real property price growth is relatively strong), a decline in the real return on bank deposits does not have as negative an impact on household portfolios.

The results suggest that China’s households save to meet a multiplicity of needs – retirement consumption, purchase of durables, self-insurance against income volatility and health shocks – and act as though they have a target level of saving in mind. An increase in financial rates of return, which raises the return on saving, makes it easier for them to meet their target saving. Financial reform that boosts interest rates could therefore have a strong effect on current tendencies to save. As financial development proceeds and alternative investment opportunities become more readily available, portfolio diversification may further enable households to meet their target saving more easily. This could potentially contribute to lower rates of saving out of current disposable income.

Статью можно посмотреть вот здесь – www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp11223.pdf

А вот что добавляет Петтис:

In China however when the PBoC raises the interest rate it has limited effect through the cost of consumer financing (consumer finance is negligible in China) and it actually increases household wealth. This means that raising rates is more likely to encourage inflation than to reduce it.

And since real interest rates have actually declined in the past year, lower real rates help explain why inflation may have already peaked, and why it is coming down. In fact this may be why financially repressed countries can have both rapid monetary expansion and limited inflation, as they typically do. Inflation itself, by lowering real rates, can reduce inflationary pressure. It is self-correcting – at least until households begin withdrawing deposits and spending the money simply because the cost of holding money is too great.

Такой вот механизм самокоррекции, работающий до тех пор, пока экономика не окажется слишком неуравновешенной и не начнёт ребалансироваться.

Я это привожу в тему вот этих двух моих статей:

econoblog.com.ua/2010/07/finansovye-osobennosti-vostochnoaziatskoj-ekonomicheskoj-modeli

econoblog.com.ua/2011/08/chto-govorit-ekonometriya-ob-aziatskoj-ekonomicheskoj-modeli

 

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